Crime Can Be Lethal: Ratortunity is not only wrong it is likely to be very harmful

There is a very useful debate among police, professors and students regarding my argument that ratortunity (the Routine Activities Theory) notion based upon the RAT crime triangle is a harmful  criminology and crime science myth because it cannot possibly be a cause of crime and is diverting our endeavors away from understanding crime causality in favour of over complicating truisms in order to dress them up as causal explanations. 



If you are not already a member of Linked[in] you will need to sign up to see it. The debate is among those in the American Society of Criminology group in Linked[in]. If you are a member and signed in to Linked[in] then the link to the debate is here.  Better still you can join the Dysology conference group and join or start your own discussion.

The Vitamin C and Iron Myth: Death by Quackery?

Research across the board shows that the evidence is at best inconclusive regarding whether or not vitamin C can help us to better absorb iron from non heme iron sources such as spinach and other plants (see Sutton 2011).

Official advice that vitamin C is known to enhance the iron absorption from plant and other non heme sources is wrong. This advice is wrong because the overall evidence, from the results of many properly conducted trials is that we have a mixed bag of disconfirming and confirming research findings. In sum, the current evidence of the iron absorbing benefits of vitamin C (ascorbic acid) in our diet is at best inconclusive.

Unfortunately, the websites promoting vitamin c in this way ignore all the disconfirming evidence.

In light of the facts revealed in a paper published by Best Thinking (Sutton 2011), I am grateful to the USDA for deleting their misleading spreadsheet from the Internet, which claimed that drinking Florida grapefruit juice would help humans to absorb two to four times as much iron from spinach as would otherwise be possible.

Unfortunately the US Government Office of Dietary Supplements (ODS) continues to claim that vitamin C will increase the iron absorption form non heme iron sources, such as spinach, as (ironically) does the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and prevention: http://www.cdc.gov/nutrition/everyone/basics/vitamins/iron.html. Unsurprisingly Wikipedia makes the same erroneous claims.

Many other websites - including one run by MIT (http://web.mit.edu/athletics/sportsmedicine/wcrminerals.html ) also continue to boldly claim that vitamin C helps with iron absorption.

Since low iron levels - linked to poor diet - kill people in large numbers (see http://www.bestthinking.com/thinkers/science/social_sciences/sociology/mike-sutton?tab=blog&blogpostid=9942%2c9942 ) there should be more care taken to get the facts right.

Here are just few of the very many web sites that still promote the fallacy (or at least to promote vitamin C in this role when the evidence is inconclusive) some are giving advice on cancer - other are for children's diets.. Just Google ‘iron vitamin c’ and the list seems endless:

http://www.parentingscience.com/iron-absorption.html

http://www.ehow.com/list_7165582_foods-block-iron.html

http://coloncancer.about.com/od/nutritionanddiet/a/irondefanemia.htm

If poor nutrition directly kills, and in other cases takes years from life spans, it seems reasonable to speculate that erroneous nutrition advice, if relied upon, might do likewise.

We can only hope that not a single one of the tens of millions of lost years of life globally - and the many hundreds sometimes thousands of deaths that happen as a direct result of iron deficiency each year in the USA - are due to that earlier bad science promoted by the USDA. And we can only hope that the hundreds of thousands of deaths occurring each year on Earth (Stoltzfus 2003) from iron deficiency are not due to current US Government and private sector bad science promotion of vitamin C as a miracle way for humans to better absorb iron non heme iron sources, such as spinach. Because,surely, that should be 'criminal' quackery.

References

Stoltzfus RJ . (2003) Iron deficiency: global prevalence and consequences. Food Nutr Bull. 2003 Dec;24(4 Suppl):S99-103

Sutton, M. (2011) SPIN@GE USA Beware of the Bull: The United States Department of Agriculture is Spreading Bull about Spinach, Iron and Vitamin C on the Internet: http://www.bestthinking.com/articles/science/chemistry/biochemistry/spin-ge-usa-beware-of-the-bull-the-united-states-department-of-agriculture-is-spreading-bull-about-spinach-iron-and-vitamin-c-on-the-internet

Opportunity Does Not Cause Crime

Opportunity Does Not Make the Thief. Read how the myth was busted.

Crime as opportunity theory is wrong

How can something that has not yet happened make you do it?

Obviously it cannot. And yet the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) notion of Crime as Opportunity as a cause of crime would have you believe it can.

Read how this pathological myth was busted on the Dysology website

Psychic Powers

Do we really all have psychic powers? If so then how come I never knew? And how come no one has won the Randi Prize?

In September 2011 The Dysology Challenge was first laid down on BestThinking.com to two professors of physics. The prize offer and conditions were and remain as follows:

The Dysology Challenge – For Cold Fusion Energy

“If cold fusion produces commercially viable free energy in 2 years time you win and get to present me (Mike Sutton) with a prize for Dysology (bad scholarship) that I'll fund at a cost of £1000 in the form of a bronze trophy depicting the theme of veracity versus claptrap – with my name engraved on it.

And if that happens I will thank you in public for proving me wrong.

If it does not produce such energy then I get to present you with the same trophy that I paid for. In this event you fail, but you still get to keep the prize even though it happens that you are wrong. Only now it is your name that will be engraved on it .”

On September 15^th 2011 the Nobel Laureate and Cambridge professor of physics Brian D. Josephson refused to put his reputation where his brain is by boldly declining to accept the Dysology Challenge regarding our difference of opinion regarding whether or not George Washington University Professor Simon Berkovich was right regarding his belief in mysterious free energy existing in the universe. Birkovich, similarly failed to take up the Dysology Challenge. (click here to read the comments section on this article to see how the challenge was made, refused by Josephson and weirdly ignored by Berkovich).

Today I am extending the Dysology Prize to include proof of genuine psychic powers existing beyond coincidence, fraud, methodological bias, or measurement error.

I am in good company. Because the Dysology Prize will be added to the current total of one million three hundred and 64 thousand pounds ($2,105,000 US) offered by a total of nine organisations and individuals, including the massive $1m Randi Prize for anyone who can prove that psychic powers exist. Despite being on offer for many years, and despite the extreme simplicity and fairness of the conditions required, no one has ever succeeded in winning any of these prizes.

Today (8th Jan. 2012) I hereby challenge University of Cambridge scientist Dr Rupert Sheldrake to accept the Dysology challenge for psychic powers. I argue that there is no veracious scientific evidence that proves humans have psychic powers. I publicly challenge Dr Rupert Sheldrake here on the Best Thinking website:

The Dysology Challenge – For Proof of Psychic Powers

I hereby challenge University of Cambridge scientist Dr Rupert Sheldrake to accept the Dysology challenge for psychic powers:

“If you can demonstrate in controlled conditions of the kind laid down by the James Randi Prize and can win the Randi Prize by proving that psychic powers exist then you get to present me (Mike Sutton) with the Veracity versus Claptrap trophy prize for Dysology (with my name engraved on it for bad scholarship) that I'll commission at a personal cost of over £1000. If the outcome is not obvious the British Royal Society will be invited to determine the winner.

And if you win then I will thank you in public for proving me wrong.

If, on the other hand, you fail, then I get to present you with the same prize that I paid for. Only you also get to keep the prize – with your name engraved on it - for your bad scholarship.”

I am prompted to publically challenge Dr Sheldrake following his article in the Daily Mail today (Sheldrake 2012) in which he claims that we all have psychic powers.

I strongly suspect that Dr Sheldrake wrote the article in order to sell his latest book: The Science of Delusion - which is released this week. If he is right then he will win the Dysology Challenge and there is no reason why he should not win a further whopping great pay out of £1,364,000 to add to whatever he makes flogging his book.

If Dr Sheldrake fails to apply for the Randi Prize, and all the other significant cash prizes and accept the Dysology Challenge then we must draw our own rational conclusions about his audacious claims. If he is right then surely winning the Randi prize would sell far more copies of his book than his article in the Daily Mail.

Finally, what kind of newspaper editor or journalist worth his or her salt would not ask Sheldrake why he has not applied for the Randi Prize?

Dr Mike Sutton (Dysology.org)

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page 2

Reference

Sheldrake, R. (2012) Why we ALL have psychic powers. Daily Mail. pp.56-57. Jan 7^th.

Note on Sheldrake

According to his page on Wikipedia today: “In September 2005 until 2010, Sheldrake received the Perrott-Warrick Scholarship for psychical research and parapsychology, which is administered by TrinityCollege, Cambridge.Sheldrake then took his current position as Academic Director for the Learning and Thinking Program at The Graduate Institute in Bethany, Connecticut^.”

Another Braced Myth?

What is the most effective way to challenge orthodoxy, knowledge consensus, pseudoscience, junk science and apparently simple claptrap?

Michael Shermer is the founder and Editor in Chief of the Skeptic magazine. Shermer’s position has long been that the most effective way to challenge fallacies and myths is to publish from a position of seeking to understand rather than ridicule (Shermer 1997). The same conclusions have been put forward by Hyman (2001) and Loxton (2011). But how do they know they are right? This is a strangely unexplored area and it is surely perverse that these leading and acknowledged healthy sceptics should accept their own intuitive and appealing beliefs in this area albeit supported in part by anecdotal evidence possibly gathered from an unintentional position of confirmation bias. For all we know, sceptics in their aim to be effective myth busters have created anotherbraced myth. Because ridicule, done the right way, might possibly turn out to be the most effective way to spread the word that certain myths are busted and to stop others from publishing claptrap.

More research is needed. And from that cause I have created Disology.com as a sibling site to Dysology.org.

Mike Sutton (2011)

References

Hyman, R. (2001) Proper Criticism. The Skeptical Inquirer. Volume 24. 4^th July. Available free online from The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. http://www.csicop.org/si/show/proper_criticism/

Loxton, D. (2011) What Is the Most Effective Way To Be A Skeptic: The Great Debate Between Confrontational Activism v. Educational Outreach. Skeptic. Vol. 16. N0. 4. pp 13-17.

Shermer, M. (1997) Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition and other confusions of our time. London. Souvenir Press.

The Market Reduction Approach to Theft

Evidence of Mike Sutton's Policy Impact

I am the originator of the Market Reduction Approach to theft (MRA), and my research in this area has, for more than a decade, influenced government policy advice and policy making in Britain and elsewhere. Several British police forces have sought to reduce theft with the MRA. This is rather remarkable since the MRA has never been shown to be effective.

Clearly the MRA is a compelling crime reduction method, but I think that we should demand more than that of the approaches that are officially recommended as promising, good practice and effective.

Impact on policy of the MRA and other policy oriented criminology

In 1999, the MRA was implemented for the first time when Kent Constabulary sought to use it in its Operation Radium to reduce high levels of burglary and other theft in the Medway Towns of Rochester, Chatham, Gillingham, Rainham and Strood, which were given the collective pseudonym South Town (Home Office 2004). This initiative led to the passing of several local Acts of Parliament throughout England to regulate trade in second hand goods, with an aim to reduce Supply by Theft (Sutton 1995) including the Kent Acts (2001) and the Nottingham City Council Act (2003).

The MRA was mentioned at National Government level, along with my work in Parliamentary debate (Hansard 2000) and the Kent Acts later in Parliamentary Business (Hansard 2004). In 1999, the British Home Office funded the implementation of the MRA in three police forces: Kent, West Mercia and Stockport in Greater Manchester (Home Office 2006), followed by a Government funded evaluation by the University of Kent of the implementation and impact of the MRA in Kent and Greater Manchester (Harris, Hale and Uglow 2003; Hale et al (2004).

Other MRA schemes have been implemented in Britain in Nottinghamshire and Derby City constabularies. In 2011, the MRA was defined as a core policing practice and as a performance indicator by both Nottinghamshire Constabulary and the City’s Crime Reduction Partnership. I continue to publish in the area of tackling stolen goods markets (e.g. Sutton 2010) and advise police at local, national and international levels. I occasionally act as an unpaid ad-hoc informal ‘sceptical friend’ (academic advisor) for various police forces through meetings, email and telephone conversations. In 2011, I addressed a British audience of chief police officers through the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO National Burglary Reduction Working Group) on the subject of the MRA and the importance of veracity to inform policy in policing and crime reduction (7/9/2011).

Although the MRA has been promoted as ‘good practice’ by the British Government and has been used by several police forces, it has not proved possible to evaluate its impact in reducing crime due to a number of factors, not least the extent of confounding variables that impact upon crime rates at both the local and national level. Despite lack of evidence of its effectiveness in reducing crime, the UK Government, US Government, Australian Government and New Zealand Government (somewhat surprisingly) promote it as good ‘effective’ policing and general crime reduction practice:

UK Government Website promoting my MRA See page 9 USA Government’s Department of Justice COPS programme international problem-oriented Practitioners policing guide for tackling stolen goods markets to reduce theft
US Department of justice also added my Home Office MRA guide to its website and an influential briefing note.
My report on tackling stolen goods markets is also recommended reading in US Department of Justice “Mayors’ Guide to effective policing and crime prevention and the MRA is recommended as one of the 60 steps for crime problem solvers.
Australian Government’s Institute of Criminology
New Zealand Ministry of Justice and also here .

Wider Influence of my MRA on Criminology

The MRA has been quite widely cited in the peer reviewed literature on crime reduction by criminologists. The MRA is also covered in many textbooks, e.g.:
Felson and Boba (2010)
Hagan ( 2010)
Chamley (2003)
Bullock and Tilley (2003)
Hopkins Burke (2004)
Sheptycki and Wardak (2005)
See Wikipedia 2011; 2011a; 2011b for a reasonably comprehensive list).

Here are just a few examples of how the MRA has influenced and/or been cited as important research in other areas beyond the theft of high volume consumer goods:

Wildlife crime and endangered species

Schneider JL. (2008) ‘Reducing the Illicit Trade in Wildlife: The Market Reduction Approach’. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 24:274–95: And here.

Trafficking in Ivory: Lemieux, A.M. and Clarke, R.V. (2009) The International Ban on Ivory Sales and its Effects on Elephant Poaching in Africa. British Journal of Criminology. Vol. 49.


Trafficking in people

Reduce human trafficking: Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe Report (e.g. see page 1) Combatting Trafficking in Humans: Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe Report (e.g. see page 1)

Art and Cultural artefact crime

Theft and Trafficking of Art and Cultural Artefacts: Manacorda, S. and Chappell, D. (eds.) (2011) Crime in the Art and Antiques World: Illegal Trafficking in Cultural Property. New York. Springer.

Some Examples of the Impact of My Other Work on Crime Reduction and Bias and Prejudice Reduction Policy Guidance and Policy Making

Within England

Publication of Sutton, M. Perry, B. Parke J. and John-Baptiste, C. (2007) Getting the Message Across: Using media to reduce ‘racial’ prejudice. Department of Communities and Local Government. London. (Peer reviewed national government research report). Led to keynote speaking engagement with National and local government representatives and members of anti-racism organisations: where I was Keynote speaker at a forum held in Scotland and funded by the Glasgow Anti-Racist Alliance (GARA). Subsequently, the Getting the Message Across report also used in a Coalition for Racial Equality and Rights submission to the Council of Europe Advisory Committee on the Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities.

Newcastle City Council relied upon the Getting the Message Across report to shape its policy making .

Within Scotland

On 26 August 2011, The Coalition for Racial Equality and Rights (formerly known as the Glasgow Anti Racist Alliance) sent a written submission to the Scottish Parliament’s Justice Committee regarding the Offensive Behaviour at Football and Threatening Communications (Scotland). Bill. The submission informed Parliament of the dangers of implementing uninformed racism reductions measures that are likely to backfire and make the problem worse. The submission cited the myth busting research contained within the ‘Getting the Message Across’ report (Sutton et al 2007). Policy making advice within the ‘Getting the Message Across’ report inspired the Glasgow Anti Racist Alliance (Now Coalition for Racial Equality and Human Rights - CREHR) to successfully apply for funding to test its recommendations. They wrote:

"The project was funded by the Equality and Human Rights Commission and used recommendations from the Communities and Local Government report “Getting the message across: using media to reduce racial prejudice and discrimination” (Sutton et al., 2007) as impetus to undertake a local research project.”

US Government Office of Justice

Click on ‘evidence base’ and ‘additional references’ at the end of the section in the report link given below to see how work I conducted in 1996 is used to construct a current US Office of Justice effective solutions guide . These sources were used in the development of the program profile, which lists: (1) Ekblom, P., Law, H. and Sutton, M. with assistance from Paul Crisp and Richard Wiggins. (1996). Safer Cities and Domestic Burglary. Home Office Research Study 164. London, England: Home Office; and (2) Sutton, M. (1996). Implementing Crime Prevention Schemes in a Multiagency Setting: Aspects of Process in the Safer Cities Programme. London, England: Home Office.
The US Government Office of Justice currently publishes a series of abstracts on my work. E.g.:

1. Crime Surveys in the 21st Century
2. Internet Crime


Other Academic Roles

Founding General Editor of the Internet Journal of Criminology.
Member of the editorial board of the Security Journal.
Founding Director of the Nottingham Centre for the Study and Reduction of Hate Crimes, Bias and Prejudice.
External Examiner for BA (Hons.) Criminology – BirminghamCity University

Within place of current employment (Nottingham Trent University):
Course Leader MA Criminology
Module leader for High Tech Crime
Module Leader for Crime Reduction and Community Safety
Member of Post Graduate Research Degrees Committee
Director of Studies for several PhD students



Notability

Notable Alumnus

Outside of the natural sciences, I was the first to be awarded a PhD at the University of Central Lancashire(UCL), where I am recognised as a notable alumnus due to my MRA concept. UCL use my notable work on the MRA as a prestige indicator in their promotions overseas. E.G: andhere .

My Research Reports in the UK National Archive

Several of my policy oriented research reports have been placed in the UK Government’s National Archive Collection. These include:

1.The Unit Fines Experiments
2. Safer Cities Evaluation
3. Handling Stolen Goods and the MRA


References

Hansard (2000). 1803-2005. 17th May. Kent County Council Bill (Lords) Commons Sitting – orders of the day. Vol. 350 cc.388-418. See also an extended debate in the House of Commons.

Hansard (2004) Written Answers. Bound Volume. Parliamentary Business. May 13, 2004. Column 573W—continued: Stolen Goods.

Harris, C. Hale, C and Uglow, S. (2003) Implementing a Market Reduction Approach to Property Crime. In: Tilley, N. and Bullock, K., (eds). Crime Reduction and Problem Oriented Policing. Devon, Willan.

Hale, C. Harris, C. Uglow, S. Gilling. L and Netten, A. (2004). Targeting the markets for stolen goods: two targeted policing initiative projects. Home Office Development and Practice Report 17.

Home Office (2004) Secure Design. Targeting the Markets for Stolen Goods: Two targeted policing initiative projects.

The National Archive: Home Office (2006) Tackling Burglary: Market Reduction Approach. Crime Reduction. The National Archive.

National Deviancy Conference (2011) Sutton, M, Hamilton, P., Long, M. and Hodgson, P. The Problem of Zombie Cops in Voodoo Criminology. National Deviancy Conference York. July/Aug.

Nottingham City Council Act (2003) Sutton, M. (1995) Supply by Theft: does the market for second-hand goods play a role in keeping crime figures high? British Journal of Criminology, Vol. 38, No 3, Summer.

Sutton, M. (2010) Stolen Goods Markets. Problem Oriented Policing Guide No. 57. U.S.A. Department of Justice COPS Programme. (Peer reviewed international policing guide.

Sutton, M. Perry, B. Parke J. and John-Baptiste, C. (2007) Getting the Message Across: Using media to reduce ‘racial’ prejudice. Department of Communities and Local Government. London.(Peer reviewed national government research report). http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/communities/pdf/611667.pdf


The Kent Acts (2001). A Case for National Legislation: Report to the Secretary of State in compliance with section 20 (1) of the Kent County Council Act 2001 and section 20 (1) of the Medway Council Act 2001

Wikipedia (2011) The Market Reduction Approach.

Wikipedia (2011a) Criminology.

Wikipedia (2011b) Mike Sutton (criminologist)